2025 Vision for Mexican Chicken Consumption

Abstract

This study estimates the demand for chicken meat for Mexico in 2025. Expenditure elasticities are calculated separately for ten income groups using national household survey data for the period 1984 to 2002. The results reveal that lower income groups will increase their chicken meat consumption in the future at a much higher rate than the upper income groups with the rise in income. Overall, the total chicken meat consumption is projected to increase by 70 percent in the next two decades. This translates into average annual growth of 3.5 percent which is much smaller than the current annual production growth of more than 8 percent. Based on these projections, it is very likely that Mexico will remain as either a small importer or self-sufficient in chicken meat in the future.